John Zeugner, AICP
March 2008
The Region’s Long-Range Transportation Plan
I know this might be boring to some, but it strongly relates to a ‘tipping point’ for transit, coordinating land use and transportation, your locality’s posture towards growth and/or sprawl, and your participation.
Every three to five years, our region’s transportation planning agency (MPO) embarks on updating the Long-Range Transportation Plan (LRTP). In theory, it’s an effort to visualize what our transportation needs will be in 20-plus years, ie where the growth will be and how state and federal funds can build the infrastructure needed. It is also a dual exercise: to model spending according to revenue projections, and see whether anticipated air quality is above or below federal thresholds.
What it really boils down to is each locality submitting lists of the road improvements it believes it needs to meet the growth it anticipates for 2031, with small pots going to rail and GRTC. This translates into 20some years of mostly road widenings and intersection improvements. As you know, massive development is planned for Hanover County, western Chesterfield, and eastern Henrico, and it’s impossible to imagine that even the biggest roads could handle future demand.
Nevertheless, most localities don’t want to discuss transit as a way out of the gridlock, nor discuss coordinating land use and transportation, suck as increasing densities and land-use mixes where transit could be available. In planners parlance, this is called Transit-oriented development (or TOD), and it is the ‘missing link’ to help retrofit our highways and sprawl to meet the new century’s challenges of smart growth, slowing sprawl, and conserving air and energy resources. TOD encourages more intensive development where transit can be provided, and reinforces more transit ridership. It is a better, complimentary system for public and private investment, and other smart growth benefits: travel mode transfers, walkability, clustered services, supports residential, and is expandable (as transit modes and their networks evolve).
Yes, some do have their heads in the sand vis a vis growth and congestion, and others don’t want to wrestle now with the problems which will face their future governments (the easy way out…the political path of least resistance…)
Last summer, Gov. Kaine pushed and got approved the state 2007 Transportation Act (HB 3202) which allows special funding for TOD’s (called Urban Development Areas (UDA’s, or special tax districts in high growth areas), and yet, proffers and impact fees are under attack in the General Assembly this session. Developers don’t want to pay these additional local costs, so they push politicians to get the legislation they want passed. This too is a vicious cycle. The public gets higher taxes, bad planning and developers driving the system. Will these attacks hold up?
There are some encouraging signs in the LRTP, so take heart. GRTC is embracing the concept of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) which they are recommending for the Broad Street corridor, from Route 5 in the east to Short Pump. It would need a dedicated pathway, probably in the center of Broad, with set ‘transfer stops’, but construction would be 1/10th the cost of light rail and it can be converted up to rail fairly easily. The most important benefit would be attracting new investment all along the corridor (work, shopping, residential, bus, bike and ped transfers, and walkability can you say TOD?). Imagine this ‘spine’ linking new growth to Main Street Station, then the Airport, then to our Edge Cities……and if those new developments had internal transit systems, which linked to a region-wide system, we’d finally be getting on track….
Another important measure would be helpful; both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads have established transportation authorities (dedicated funding sources) to address the overall region s needs. Our committee was planning to recommend this too, but Del Frank Hall beat us to the punch. It may take a few years to get serious about an Authority overall, and where the taxes would come from, and how they would be spent, but it must happen here, sooner rather than later if we don’t use regional money to solve regional problems, we’ll keep getting LRTPs comprised of road lists and never break the capacity-congestion conundrum (widened roads quickly fill to full capacity, and cars being the only real option in the River City region.
There is a real irony to all this planning. It is founded on certain straight-line assumptions, such as VDOT’s modeling assumption that gas prices will remain the same, we will keep sprawling, etc. The greenies on the committee urged consideration of 4 variables, each of which could radically alter the long-range aspects of the plan: global warming and climate change; energy resources and new technologies; air quality and Chesapeake Bay mandates; and current funding assumptions. The long and short of it is that we may have some challenges ahead; instead of ignoring them, let’s try to anticipate them and build in flexibility and redundancy.
So what can you do? Drop a note to your Supervisor, asking for their take on some of these future-oriented issues: does proposed development include congestion solutions? Does it mean more driving and longer distances? What about mobility for non-driving children, or when you get older? Where will you live when you become empty nesters? Why are your taxes paying for new-comer’s residences, and schools? Are there limits to your locality’s growth? Let them know you want sustainability and quality of life; let them know you want transit and transit-oriented development soon, for your golden years. Let them know you are Sierra Club and tell them to get to work on it, NOW !